Hot Local Real Estate Market Stays Hot - Carmel Highlands Shines - 1^st  Quarter 2018 Report

First Published in The Carmel Pine Cone on April 27, 2018

In 2007 we learned that real estate values do not climb forever even if it had seemed that way for what appeared to be an eternity. The up market, for us, began in the fourth quarter of 1995, with a bump in the road during the dot.com bust, but basically had a 12-year run.  All during the incredible ride doomsayers where predicting impending crashes that never materialized.  Of course, when it did the extent of the collapse reached proportions few had foreseen.

Well, here we are again with a relentless upward trend running now for about five years.  We live in one of the most expensive areas in the country which, with our small size and worldwide appeal, seems to make us less vulnerable to drastic downturns than most places. Still, we are not immune to the reality around us.  We thought we saw a hint of a pause last year, but the hint turned out to be an illusion.  So, here we are merrily going up, up and up.

Prices

Median sales prices in the first quarter were up in all eight markets surveyed in comparison the first quarter of last year.  Carmel-by-the-Sea for the first time had a median sales price in excess of two million dollars and Carmel Highlands achieved the startling median sales price of $4,416,250.  Carmel area reached $1,746,125, Pebble Beach $1,560,000 and Carmel Valley $1,125,000.

Carmel Highlands

The big surprise of the quarter was the astounding success in Carmel Highlands.  In all of the years we have been writing for the Carmel Pine Cone, the Highlands, hands down, has been the slowest market on the Peninsula.  Not so far this year.  Besides the impressive median sales price, in excess of four million dollars, dollar volume was colossal, over $31 million in the quarter as opposed $1.4 million last year, a 22 fold increase.  There were eight sales in the quarter as opposed to one last year.

Even the Market Barometer, the percentage of listings under contract, registered 17% on April 1st, a weak number for any of the other markets but strong for the Highlands which often hovers around 10 per cent or less.  On January 1^st of this year it was a miserable three percent giving us no inkling of what a terrific quarter was coming up.  Is there a hidden effect from Big Little Lies which had many scenes filmed on Yankee Point Drive?  Admittedly, it is a crazy thought, yet, who knows?

Dollar Volume

Gross dollar volume in the quarter was just shy of $389 million up 23% over last year. The biggest gain, of course, was Carmel Highlands.  Seaside jumped 50% as buyers continue to have a voracious appetite for Seaside properties.  Carmel-by-the-Sea, Carmel Area and Pacific Grove all had reduced sales volume from last year as a result of fewer sales in the quarter than a year ago.  Total sales in the eight markets surveyed reached 247, up 33 deals from last year.

Price points in all categories kept moving up. Only one property sold for under $400,000.  The price range with the most closings was from $700,000 to $999,000.  Fifty three percent of the total number of transactions exceeded one million dollars.

In the immortal words of a friend who, way back in the late 1980s when real estate was rebounding from the brutal interest rates of the Paul Volcker era as chairman of the Federal Reserve, queried: "How do you feel when you come home at night and realize your house made more money than you did?"ighlanHH HiHi

Paul Brocchini and Mark Ryan are real estate agents with Carmel Realty Company, NE Corner of Dolores & 8^th, Carmel-by-the-Sea. They can be reached at either 831-238-1498 (Mark) or 831-601-1620 (Paul).  The charts are based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Monterey County Association of REALTORS®' Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Neither the Association nor the MLS guarantees or is responsible for their accuracy. Data maintained by the Association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity.