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News FOURTH QUARTER 2004 REPORT First Published in The Carmel Pine Cone January 2005 |
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Strong 4th Quarter
Closes out Banner Year
Fourth Quarter & Year End Report
Dollar volume is the real estate story for 2004. The Peninsula real estate market obliterated previous dollar volume records registering a whopping $1.6 billion dollars in sales, an increase of $450 million dollars or 39% over last year.
No one foresaw this market. We reported at the end of last year that the billion dollar markets of 2000 and 2002 were maintained in 2003 due to the robust low-end of the market. The high end weakened substantially in 2003. The low end, driven by record-low interest rates, was red hot and made up for the decrease in high end sales.
As we entered 2004 the high-end market, which we now define as sales over $2 million, was still in the doldrums and with no obvious indicators of any pending change. As we reported at the end of the first quarter, expensive properties suddenly began to sell in late January. Why so many qualified buyers appeared in such a short period is a mystery, but appear they did. And they kept on appearing for the entire year. The second quarter was especially strong with $526 million of sales in that quarter alone, the record high to date.
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The number of transactions was also the highest we have seen, 1,530 closed sales for the year. The distribution of prices continues to amaze. In the fourth quarter 10% of the sales were over $2 million and 26% over $1 million. The most popular price range was $600,000 to $799,000 with 101 sales and second was the $1 million to $1.99 million category with 90 sales. In Carmel the million dollar price tag is swiftly becoming the entry-level home cost. Price Appreciation The number that most fascinates home owners and prospective buyers is the annual increase in value. The number of years we can print in the Carmel Pine Cone is limited by available space, but in our data base we have annual number going back to 1996. When the current boom began in 1996, Monterey lagged for a long time in terms of prices. Last year Monterey caught up! The price appreciation from 2003 to 2004 was as follows: South Coast +43%; Seaside +41%; Marina +35%; Carmel +31%; Pacific Grove +28%; Pebble Beach +24%; Del Rey Oaks +19%; Carmel Valley +15%; Salinas Monterey Highway+13%; Monterey +12%. Let's look at the five year appreciation rate. This is a particularly appropriate comparison since 1999 predates the boom that began in 2000. Here are the gains for that period: Seaside +197%; Marina +132%; Del Rey Oaks +124%; South Coast +118%: Carmel +99%; Salinas Monterey Highway +92%; Pacific Grove +91%: Monterey +76%; Pebble Beach +74%; Carmel Valley +64%. The 4th Quarter We didn't get much of a break during the holidays. At a time when most think the real estate market would pause, people were out looking and buying. The activity was down a little bit from last year (352 sales in the quarter as opposed to 378 last year), but the dollar volume was up 19% reaching $392,755,000. Our Market Barometer, which measures the percentage of listing in escrow, was strong on January 1st pointing to a good first quarter of 2005. Marina topped the list with 60% of its listings in escrow. Seven of the ten markets had barometer readings over 30% and not a single market fell below 20%, our traditional benchmark for a decent market. In all, it was a strong quarter capping off an unbelievable year. It is doubtful that the 2004 pace can be duplicated in 2005, yet the beginning of the year seems to indicate that the market will continue to be strong. |
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The charts are based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Monterey County Association of Realtors' Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Neither the Association nor the MLS guarantees or is responsible for their accuracy. Data maintained by the Association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
For a printable copy of this report please click ReportPlease Call Us
We have lived on the Monterey Peninsula since 1978 and in the heart of Carmel since 1986. We know the market and have deep experience assisting both buyers and sellers.
We Help BuyersMany of our buyers are from out of town and before they act they need to gain an understanding of our local market. If you are an out-of-town buyer, you are extremely dependent on your agent for guidance. We are skilled at assisting you up the learning curve so that you can make sound decisions. The way we prosper is by putting our buyers into good, solid situations.
We Help SellersWe know the market and would be happy to evaluate the value of your house at no charge. We know how to help you get ready for market to get the best price for your property. Selling a property is a cooperative effort between the seller and his or her agent. We will guide you on the team approach to success.
Please email us, call us at 831-622-4642, or write us at PO Box 350, Carmel, CA 93921.
