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News THIRD QUARTER 2005 REPORT First Published in The Carmel Pine Cone October 2005 |
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Market Roars Again
Third Quarter Report
The headline of our last report was "Market Begins to Take a Breather."
Some breather! The third quarter continued the boisterous pace that began way back in the fourth quarter of 1995. The market is on a ten-year roll, with slight pauses in 2001 and 2003.
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The second quarter, normally the strongest, did show evidences of weakness. Carmel, Carmel Valley and Pebble Beach all declined from their 2004 numbers. It seemed logical to expect at least a hiatus in the furious increases and probably a flattening. In addition, historically the third quarter is a bit off here as our out-of-town clientele have their minds on other things during the summer months, regaining interest in our properties in the late summer and fall. The third quarter blew away both historical and logical expectations. The dollar volume, $519,318,000, was the second highest in history. This was a gain of 28% over last year. The only other quarter to surpass five hundred million dollars in sales was the second quarter of 2004, still the record holder with $526,393,000 in sales.The three down markets that we mentioned in the second quarter report, Carmel, Carmel Valley and Pebble Beach, came back strong: Carmel up 22% over last year, Carmel Valley plus 70% and Pebble Beach an increase of 52%. Prices Prices continued their relentless push skyward. South Coast topped the list with the median sales price during the quarter reaching $3,345,000, 99% up from the median sales price for all of 2004. South Coast numbers, on a quarterly basis, gyrate wildly as the number of listings and sales is so small. There were just six closed sales during the quarter. Still, a median sales price in excess of three million dollars demonstrates just how expensive the South Coast has become. Next on the up list was Carmel Valley, plus 30%, followed by Monterey up 26%, Marina up 25% and Seaside up 23%. Carmel was plus 20%. The number of transactions was also strong. There were 409 closed sales in the quarter, up just one percent from last year, but the second strongest quarter of the last seven. Distribution of Sales The distribution of sales continues to fascinate us. The most popular price range during the quarter was from one million to two million dollars. There were 139 transactions in this group, 34% of total sales. Forty-eight sales topped two million dollars, 12% of the total. Adding this up we find that 46% of the sales made during the quarter exceeded one million dollars. It wasn't long ago when not a single Carmel property without an ocean view fetched more than one million. Today, the entry-level fixer upper in Carmel is edging up to the million dollar category. Market Barometer Our Market Barometer which measures the percentage of listings in escrow remains strong in six of the nine markets. Pacific Grove led the way on October 1, with a 49% reading followed by the Salinas/Monterey Highway corridor at 42%. Marina, Monterey, Del Rey Oaks and Seaside exceeded 30%. Pebble Beach was at a respectable 25%. |
Readings below 20% we consider to be marks of a slow market. Carmel Valley has dropped to 18%, Carmel to 14% and South Coast to an abysmal 9%. Looking ahead, we can expect decent fourth quarter numbers for all of the markets with readings over 20% and weakening numbers for the towns at the bottom of the list.
The ten year run is not over. How long it can continue is anyone's guess.
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The charts are based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Monterey County Association of Realtors' Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Neither the Association nor the MLS guarantees or is responsible for their accuracy. Data maintained by the Association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
Please Call Us
We have lived on the Monterey Peninsula since 1978 and in the heart of Carmel since 1986. We know the market and have deep experience assisting both buyers and sellers.
We Help BuyersMany of our buyers are from out of town and before they act they need to gain an understanding of our local market. If you are an out-of-town buyer, you are extremely dependent on your agent for guidance. We are skilled at assisting you up the learning curve so that you can make sound decisions. The way we prosper is by putting our buyers into good, solid situations.
We Help SellersWe know the market and would be happy to evaluate the value of your house at no charge. We know how to help you get ready for market to get the best price for your property. Selling a property is a cooperative effort between the seller and his or her agent. We will guide you on the team approach to success.
Please email us, call us at 831-622-4642, or write us at PO Box 350, Carmel, CA 93921.
