Contents
Market Barometer
Median Sales Prices
Gross Dollar Volume
Sales by Quarter
Days on Market

That glimmer of hope for buyers has dimmed. At the beginning of this year the availability of condos again shrank. Our Market Barometer, the percentage of active listings that are in escrow, jumped back up to 61% on January 1 from 40% on October 1. Of the 51 listings on January 1, 31 were under contract leaving only 20 available for buyers.

We took a spot check again on January 28, and found that the inventory had crept up to 24 available units. Six were over one million dollars, seven between $500,000 and a million and only 11 under $500,000. The pickings are slim.

Prices

Prices for condos, just as we reported in our column last week for houses, have soared. Here is the picture over the past two years:

Pebble Beach

We have split the condo market in Pebble Beach into two segments: 1) those with listing prices under one million dollars, Ocean Pine and Shepherd’s Knoll; 2) those with listing prices over one million dollars, Spanish Bay and the Lodge.

These are two distinct markets. When one lumps them together for statistical purposes the results are misleading. In 1997 the developers of Spanish Bay began selling the last phase of the project. In 1997 there were two Spanish Bay units that sold for less than one million dollars and in 1998 three. Since 1999 all Spanish Bay units have been listed and sold for more than one million dollars.

Both groups showed small price declines from 1998 to 1999 and big jumps in 2000. The two year appreciation numbers were a 52.6% gain for the under million dollar group and a 58.5% gain for the over one million dollar group.

Dollar Volume

Dollar volume increased by only 9% in 2000, reaching $83,993,000 in sales. It is interesting to note how small the condo market is here in relation to houses. Remember in The Pine Cone last week we reported house sales of over one billion dollars in 2000. Although a tiny market in relation to the market for houses, condos are important to us. They are often more affordable than houses and offer relatively carefree ownership.

Viejo Carmel

An interesting condominium scenario is about to be played out in Carmel. The developers of Viejo Carmel, the new project on Junipero between Third and Fourth Avenues, have announced that they will be taking offers beginning on February 14, for the first two units. They will be selling ten units in total and renting the balance.

We are particularly fascinated by this project as we analyzed it about ten years ago for the former owner. At that time, the numbers did not look good. Projected construction costs were higher than potential sales. The condominium market had been in a long slump and seemed to have little prospect of breaking out. How times have changed!

The current owners’ timing appears to be good. It would have been better to come on the market 12 months ago, but prospects for 2001 should still be favorable. The key question is: will the market step up to their asking prices?

They have announced that the first two units will be the “Carmel Floor Plan.” We have not yet seen this floor plan, but we do know that in the tradition of Carmel the units will be relatively small. Minimum initial bids will have to be $1,625,000. The highest price ever received for downtown Carmel condominium reported to the local Multiple Listing Service (mls) is $540,000.

The rumor mill has been running full time on Viejo Carmel. We heard months ago that the owners had more than 600 registered prospects. We know that in the past few years buyers have been willing to pay large premiums for new construction. If the first two units go right into escrow, expect the other eight to fall like dominoes.

If these asking prices or better are achieved, Carmel, like Pebble Beach, will have a two-tiered condominium market. As we said at the end of our third quarter report, “stay tuned.” It is going to be an interesting few months.

* No Sales